Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4133…165b sports 190 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (164 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$48,530 (-28%) realized −$39,353 · open −$9,177
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%66W / 117L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$904per market
Trades / day164.2pace
Fees−$3,159est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,025now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,323
7 days−$10,594
14 days−$26,480
30 days−$34,302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$43,479
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (164 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -55.2% -59.5% 18% 18% -55.7%
≤30d 183 -19.9% -27.5% 36% 34% -29.9%
≤90d 183 -19.9% -27.5% 36% 34% -29.9%
all 183 -19.9% -27.5% 36% 34% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover164.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.5% 34% -29.9%
10% -34.5% 30% -36.6%
15% ← realistic here -40.8% 28% -42.7%
20% -46.6% 23% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$947) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$894 vs −$798 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$2,025
Realized−$39,353
Unrealized−$9,177
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses66 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$3,159
Open positions7
Markets (closed)183 / 190
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$904
Trades / day164.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Grey Trac 28¢ 6¢ $3,582 $846 −$2,737 (-76%)
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner WinteR SquadronS 59¢ 100¢ $428 $723 +$295 (+69%)
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Hive 55¢ 20¢ $1,129 $402 −$727 (-64%)
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Open Qualifier 1 Playoffs NA, wed win 44¢ 0¢ $4,159 $47 −$4,112 (-99%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Grey Trac 17¢ 0¢ $1,787 $5 −$1,781 (-100%)
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 1 Winner NA, wed win 33¢ 0¢ $117 $2 −$115 (-98%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $285 −$65 -23%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $71 −$38 -54%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,011 −$989 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $521 −$40 -8%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,402 −$3,320 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $1,194 −$1,151 -96%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3,574 −$3,500 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $225 −$219 -97%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $2,504 −$507 -20%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $1,238 −$998 -81%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $21 +$5 +26%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $124 +$14 +11%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $2,238 +$3,447 +154%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $168 −$147 -87%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1,263 −$1,237 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $169 −$165 -97%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $513 −$402 -78%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs cincai team - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $476 −$465 -98%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $159 −$155 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $318 −$311 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,314 −$1,282 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 08 $700 +$932 +133%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $917 −$901 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $11,730 −$10,147 -86%
Dota 2: summer bear vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $89 −$88 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,839 −$1,364 -74%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,921 −$2,863 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $10,080 −$3,404 -34%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $86 +$142 +165%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $6,851 +$5,672 +83%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $971 −$957 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $7,111 −$7,000 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $261 +$78 +30%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $6,362 −$6,214 -98%
Dota 2: Hive vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,645 −$1,613 -98%
Dota 2: Hive vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $451 −$440 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs BALU - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,291 −$1,258 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $3,181 +$11,211 +352%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League G Jun 06 $109 +$64 +59%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $290 +$835 +288%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $588 −$575 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,745 +$198 +11%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1,203 −$1,176 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs G-Time - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $272 −$266 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 05 $1,191 −$193 -16%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs G-Time - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $578 −$568 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $177 +$73 +41%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $4,788 −$4,685 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $337 +$351 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 29¢ $18 27m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 29¢ $73 27m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 31¢ $91 27m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 20¢ $166 28m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 36¢ $41 28m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 35¢ $62 28m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 35¢ $54 28m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 33¢ $76 29m
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 50¢ $95 29m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 30¢ $85 29m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 27¢ $179 29m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 27¢ $110 30m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 47¢ $40 30m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 43¢ $86 30m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 37¢ $268 31m
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 48¢ $240 31m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 36¢ $78 31m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 26¢ $202 31m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 35¢ $65 31m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 31¢ $200 32m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 33¢ $243 32m
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 73¢ $40 32m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 37¢ $143 33m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 36¢ $73 33m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 34¢ $129 33m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 35¢ $80 33m
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 72¢ $40 33m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 36¢ $95 33m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 38¢ $34 34m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Grey Trac 20¢ $250 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,024.71 · official $2,024.71 (match) · 3500 history records