Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:02:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4133…d8b9
sports · 103 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$88 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$90 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses32 / 52
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions19
Markets (closed)84 / 103
History coverage66d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 19 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$4
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 61¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 61¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Solary 40¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 47¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Top Esports 47¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 56¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 53¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 58¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Ursa 45¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 51¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs G2 Esports 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Monte 57¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Top Esports 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Virtus.pro 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner B8 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on May 8? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +47%
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +61%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +85%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 +$2 +149%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -16%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $1 $0 -20%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $19 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 +$16 +79%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $20 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$9 +93%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 +$19 +93%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 +$16 +79%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $27 −$16 -60%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$13 +129%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$11 +109%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% −$33
weather 28% −$10
crypto 9% −$50
other 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 58¢ $1 45m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $2 1h
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) SELL Alliance 100¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 100¢ $2 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $2 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Top Esports 47¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 61¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 60¢ $1 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $1 2h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 67¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $1 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 61¢ $1 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 55¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 57¢ $1 3h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 39¢ $1 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 62¢ $1 3h
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) BUY Solary 40¢ $1 4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $1 4h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 40¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 48¢ $1 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 42¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $1 5h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 65¢ $1 6h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -26.4% -33.4% 34% 34% -11.3%
≤30d 68 -20.2% -27.8% 32% 31% -18.5%
≤90d 84 -23.1% -30.4% 38% 25% -24.9%
all 84 -23.1% -30.4% 38% 25% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 25% -24.9%
10% -37.1% 25% -32.1%
15% -43.2% 25% -38.7%
20% -48.7% 20% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.71 · official $20.71 (match) · 205 history records