Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:57:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4135…185f sports 1210 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$252 (-2%) realized −$251 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%594W / 605L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day37.8pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$97
14 days−$62
30 days−$1,708
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$315
other 10% −$15
finance 0% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 -8.3% -17.0% 44% 40% -17.5%
≤30d 796 -22.2% -29.6% 40% 37% -32.1%
≤90d 1199 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 47% -12.3%
all 1199 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 47% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 47% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 46% -20.6%
15% -27.9% 42% -28.3%
20% -34.9% 32% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$251
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses594 / 605
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1199 / 1210
History coverage57d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 55¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Maria Sakkari 39¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 57¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Marie Bouzkova 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Anastasia Potapova 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 62¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 67¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Oliver Tarvet 41¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 34¢ 27¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 15 $10 −$5 -53%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $10 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 −$2 -10%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 +$10 +194%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$5 -52%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $15 −$5 -34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $10 −$5 -51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $10 −$5 -53%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li Jun 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$2 -24%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $5 +$3 +54%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marie Mettraux vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato Jun 13 $5 +$2 +45%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Georgii Kravchenko vs Jan Kumstat Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $5 −$1 -28%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros Jun 13 $5 +$2 +41%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julie Struplova vs Martha Matoula Jun 13 $5 −$3 -68%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 13 $10 −$8 -74%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Los Angeles: Salma Ewing vs Maria Aytoyan Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF kiseljak: Ivan Biletic vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 48¢ $5 23m
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Martin Landaluce 67¢ $5 25m
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 67¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $5 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $5 6h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Oliver Tarvet 41¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $5 8h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $9 9h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $8 13h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $5 13h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 66¢ $5 13h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 31¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 57¢ $5 14h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff SELL G2 Esports 61¢ $5 15h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 63¢ $5 15h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $10 15h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 39¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 55¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 53¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 47¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 43¢ $5 16h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 63¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 53¢ $5 16h
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY Felix Balshaw 39¢ $5 17h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Heretics 48¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.90 · official $53.90 (match) · 3008 history records