Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4136…3624 crypto 20 markets active 1d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$278 (-34%) realized −$278 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$196
crypto 36% −$36
sports 10% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -34.1% -40.4% 45% 30% -41.5%
≤30d 20 -34.1% -40.4% 45% 30% -41.5%
≤90d 20 -34.1% -40.4% 45% 30% -41.5%
all 20 -34.1% -40.4% 45% 30% -41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 30% -41.5%
10% -46.1% 25% -47.1%
15% -51.3% 25% -52.2%
20% -56.1% 20% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$39 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $97 −$96 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $96 +$44 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $48 +$48 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$18 +68%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$22 -44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $96 −$95 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$13 +51%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $97 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $96 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $48 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $48 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $48 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records