Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:38:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
41 0x4136…1058 crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$497 (+16%) realized +$604 · open −$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate72%23W / 9L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day57.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$85
sports 10% +$263
other 5% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +14.8% +3.9% 72% 62% +4.8%
≤30d 32 +14.8% +3.9% 72% 62% +4.8%
≤90d 32 +14.8% +3.9% 72% 62% +4.8%
all 32 +14.8% +3.9% 72% 62% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.9% 62% +4.8%
10% ← realistic here -6.1% 53% -5.2%
15% -15.2% 31% -14.4%
20% -23.5% 22% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$33 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized+$604
Unrealized−$107
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses23 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)32 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day57.2
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 90¢ 50¢ $200 $110 −$90 (-45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 36¢ 50¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+40%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 56¢ 50¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 42¢ 16¢ $30 $11 −$19 (-63%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 82¢ 50¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $473 −$174 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $213 +$34 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $211 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $148 +$62 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $84 +$24 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $85 +$38 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $84 +$23 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $96 −$71 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $304 +$263 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $156 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$32 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $155 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$45 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $158 +$44 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $116 +$37 +32%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $53 +$27 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $53 +$25 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $22 +$12 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $55 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $212 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $244 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $261 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $247 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $213 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $229 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $211 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $210 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $148 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $32 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $96 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $52 4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 39¢ $102 4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $115 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $567 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.20 · official $180.20 (match) · 71 history records