trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 9 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 33% | 11% | -10.5% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 33% | 11% | -10.5% |
| all | 18 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 61% | 6% | -10.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.2% | 6% | -10.1% |
| 10% | -17.0% | 0% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -25.0% | 0% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -32.4% | 0% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | $33 | $33 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +14% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 04 | $67 | −$3 | -4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $72 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 03 | $4 | $0 | -2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 02 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 02 | $13 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 02 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 28 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 27 | $9 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jul 15 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? | Jun 26 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Apr 17 | $4 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? | Apr 16 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president | Apr 16 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| TikTok sale announced before April? | Mar 31 | $14 | $0 | +1% |