Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x413b…43f4 crypto 1472 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$15,464 (-19%) realized +$577 · open −$243
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%397W / 1037L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,754
7 days−$2,746
14 days+$4,661
30 days+$3,989
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,929
other 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 275 -50.3% -55.0% 17% 16% -25.4%
≤30d 571 -5.0% -14.1% 29% 28% -0.4%
≤90d 1423 -15.4% -23.5% 28% 26% -8.1%
all 1434 -15.0% -23.1% 28% 26% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 26% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 24% -17.0%
15% -37.1% 22% -25.0%
20% -43.3% 20% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$30 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$577
Unrealized−$243
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses397 / 1037
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1434 / 1472
History coverage91d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1434 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 34¢ 32¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $200 $5 −$195 (-98%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$16 +306%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6PM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $73 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $211 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $15 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $159 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $158 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $211 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $210 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $158 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $237 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $157 32m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $82 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $13 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $529 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $158 49m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 52m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $297 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $208 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $527 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $158 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $32 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.09 · official $107.34 · 3500 history records