Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:09:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x413d…3fd9 politics 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days+$22
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$6
politics 41% −$14
economics 5% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
sports 3% −$39
tech 2% −$1
world 1% +$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +11.8% +1.1% 33% 33% +1.6%
≤30d 15 +4.6% -5.3% 13% 13% -8.9%
≤90d 93 +0.0% -9.5% 5% 4% -9.6%
all 107 -2.8% -12.1% 7% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 6% -9.7%
10% -20.5% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage118d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 +$19 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $38 +$4 +12%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $268 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $249 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,440 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $229 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $196 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $234 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $204 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 15 $260 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $993 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $266 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $203 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $227 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $265 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $252 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $210 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 03 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $255 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $256 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $245 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 29 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 27 $274 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $204 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $236 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $205 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $190 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $191 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $222 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $261 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $494 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $25 5h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $25 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $38 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 45h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 45h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 8d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 8d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 9d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 9d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 14d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 17d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i SELL No 100¢ $44 17d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i BUY No 100¢ $44 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 23d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 24d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $207 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 319 history records