Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x413f…9860
crypto · 1998 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$170 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$170 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1416 / 534
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1950 / 1998
History coverage37d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day54.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1950 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$8
14 days+$99
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 69¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 503 +0.8% -8.8% 70% 70% -9.1%
≤30d 1659 +1.9% -7.8% 72% 72% -6.9%
≤90d 1950 +1.8% -7.9% 73% 72% -7.0%
all 1950 +1.8% -7.9% 73% 72% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 72% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 62% -15.9%
15% -24.8% 40% -24.0%
20% -32.1% 22% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.71 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records