Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:43:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4142…0e68 crypto 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%76W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$8
other 2% $0
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$3
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 24 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 79 -3.5% -12.7% 96% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -9.5%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses76 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage238d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 94¢ 95¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 18? Jun 18 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? Jun 04 $98 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? May 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 4? May 05 $97 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 2? May 03 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 27? Apr 29 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 23? Apr 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 18? Apr 20 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 13? Apr 16 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? Apr 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? Apr 05 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 30? Apr 02 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 27? Mar 28 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 25? Mar 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 23? Mar 24 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 20? Mar 22 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 17? Mar 19 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 3? Mar 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? Mar 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 28? Mar 01 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 15? Feb 16 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on February 11? Feb 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 2? Feb 05 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $94 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $3 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 26 Jan 26 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on January 24? Jan 24 $94 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $6 51m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $99 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $96 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $99 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $99 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $99 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $98 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $4 23d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 2? BUY No 100¢ $99 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 53d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 100¢ $2 55d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $100 57d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $99 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $99 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $97 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $100 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $96 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $101 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $101 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $101 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $99 91d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $97 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $99 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.34 · official $110.34 (match) · 164 history records