Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:30:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4143…9542 world 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$8
politics 26% $0
world 25% +$1
other 21% +$3
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.9% -12.2% 43% 14% -9.1%
≤30d 16 -4.3% -13.4% 31% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -1.6% -11.0% 36% 7% -9.5%
all 51 -0.8% -10.3% 41% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 8% -9.8%
10% -18.9% 6% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 4% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage526d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $38 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $66 +$2 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -50%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -43%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $71 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $23 −$2 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $73 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $1 $0 +12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +3%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $4 $0 +4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $516 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Dec 07 $2 −$2 -92%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $5 $0 +4%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 18 $4 $0 -1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Apr 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 25 $5 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 20 $4 $0 -8%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $8 $0 +3%
Who will win Match for Hope 2025? Mar 04 $4 +$4 +117%
Toledo vs. Miami (OH) Feb 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the Australian Open? Feb 03 $4 +$6 +170%
Between 350-399 Detainers Lodged in next ICE update? Feb 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Mungo vs. MINH Jan 25 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $15 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 12h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $8 27h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $19 27h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $8 27h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $34 27h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 85¢ $5 36h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $33 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $38 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 68¢ $22 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 68¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $32 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $1 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes $0 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes $1 8d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $22 8d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $22 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $17 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $13 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 162 history records