Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4143…2d58 world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 314d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
other 27% −$3
politics 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 6% $0
finance 5% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.3% -3.0% 67% 11% -10.0%
≤30d 17 +4.1% -5.8% 53% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 17 +4.1% -5.8% 53% 6% -9.7%
all 40 +0.4% -9.2% 35% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.9%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.6%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.4%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

314d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage314d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $63 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $43 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $41 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $47 −$2 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Jan 30 $6 −$3 -57%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 28 $20 $0 -0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $50 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 28 $21 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Sep 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 24 $60 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $5 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $5 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $13 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $28 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $40 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $44 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $43 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $22 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $23 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $40 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $32 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $8 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $5 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $36 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $45 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $47 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.83 · official $2.87 (match) · 127 history records