Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4143…3783 sports 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,402 (-22%) realized −$3,393 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%44W / 48L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$302
7 days+$1,157
14 days−$4,249
30 days−$3,790
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$4,037
sports 13% +$694
crypto 3% −$457
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -28.6% -35.4% 44% 44% +10.4%
≤30d 92 -10.5% -19.0% 48% 48% -31.8%
≤90d 92 -10.5% -19.0% 48% 48% -31.8%
all 92 -10.5% -19.0% 48% 48% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 48% -31.8%
10% -26.8% 46% -38.3%
15% -33.9% 42% -44.3%
20% -40.3% 28% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$152 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized−$3,393
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses44 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions4
Markets (closed)92 / 96
History coverage16d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $242 $230 −$12 (-5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $48 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Yes 33¢ 38¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $495 +$300 +60%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$9 +95%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $24 +$12 +51%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $9 +$7 +69%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 26 $25 +$11 +46%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 +$7 +76%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $456 +$464 +102%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-4.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $247 +$112 +45%
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $25 +$11 +44%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $50 +$11 +22%
France vs. Iraq: Team to Take First Corner Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$32 +132%
France to win the second half? Jun 23 $25 +$6 +23%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$23 +46%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $25 +$9 +35%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,705 +$214 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $247 −$247 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $98 −$98 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $24 +$12 +51%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $49 +$41 +82%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 +$11 +44%
Ecuador to win the second half? Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,263 +$507 +40%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $18 +$7 +36%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$16 +66%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$18 +74%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 +$11 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $10 1h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $26 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $249 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $495 18h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $37 22h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 27h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 27h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 27h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $24 27h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $17 45h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $9 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 67¢ $25 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 35¢ $1 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 35¢ $14 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 35¢ $14 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 35¢ $14 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 35¢ $14 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 35¢ $13 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 35¢ $14 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 35¢ $50 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 35¢ $4 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 35¢ $13 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 54¢ $49 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.25 · official $316.25 (match) · 231 history records