Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:52:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
41 0x4144…f2f1 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 399d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% $0
other 37% −$3
finance 9% +$2
politics 7% +$3
crypto 6% $0
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 6 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -10.1%
all 23 +1.8% -7.9% 57% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 4% -9.2%
10% -16.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -24.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

399d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage399d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 85¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $37 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $45 +$2 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $108 −$3 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 27 $24 $0 -1%
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 24 $6 $0 +4%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich beat Auckland City? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $101K on May 23? May 21 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 20 $24 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $32 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 63¢ $37 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $37 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $6 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $35 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $16 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $16 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $32 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $14 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $17 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 56¢ $35 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $23 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $11 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $34 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $2 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $1 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $35 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $35 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $39 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $39 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $38 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.30 · official $32.30 (match) · 65 history records