Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x4144…a16d other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 46L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$14
politics 16% −$10
other 11% +$24
tech 3% $0
sports 1% +$19
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.2% -27.8% 0% 0% -16.9%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -15.0% 6% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 51 +5.4% -4.6% 25% 20% -8.4%
all 61 +4.4% -5.5% 25% 16% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 16% -9.4%
10% -14.6% 16% -18.1%
15% -22.8% 15% -26.0%
20% -30.4% 13% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage574d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $139 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $115 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $381 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $118 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $118 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $131 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $128 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 25 $121 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 25 $128 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $120 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $247 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $246 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 23 $119 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $124 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $134 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $122 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 13 $8 +$6 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 13 $7 +$11 +165%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $12 +$8 +70%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $12 +$3 +24%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $8 +$7 +79%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $14 +$6 +46%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 06 $13 +$7 +57%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 06 $44 $0 +0%
Canucks vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Clippers vs. Pacers Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Apr 01 $33 +$28 +84%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 26 $22 $0 +2%
Golden Knights vs. Jets Mar 26 $20 +$23 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $23 31h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 33h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 47¢ $7 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $21 10d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $21 10d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 12d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 13d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 14d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $24 14d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $24 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 16d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 17d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 17d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $15 23d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 24d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.85 · official $19.85 (match) · 273 history records