Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x4145…f1e0 other 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$19
politics 33% −$15
sports 14% +$16
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 99 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 141 +2.8% -7.0% 10% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 9% -9.6%
10% -15.9% 6% -18.2%
15% -24.0% 4% -26.1%
20% -31.5% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage133d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $283 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $183 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $175 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $220 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $227 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $425 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $424 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $212 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $299 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $580 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $181 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $149 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $141 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $767 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $185 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $245 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $210 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $233 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $217 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $242 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $197 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $227 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $218 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $234 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $228 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $252 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $177 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $214 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 3h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 10h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 12h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $33 12h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $33 17h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 22d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 22d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 22d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 22d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $240 24d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $240 26d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $223 26d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $223 27d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $183 27d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $183 27d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $232 28d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $232 29d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $175 29d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $175 29d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $238 29d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $239 29d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $220 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 433 history records