Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4146…01a2
sports · 87 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$113 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$111 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$80
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses30 / 38
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions19
Markets (closed)68 / 87
History coverage449d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 19 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$17
14 days−$0
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+4%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Steve Garcia 41¢ 44¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Yes 40¢ 18¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 26¢ 36¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card) Daniel Santos 62¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card) Santiago Luna 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Card) Sam Patterson 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa (Bantamweight, Prelims) Luan Lacerda 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +87%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +13%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $5 +$1 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $5 +$5 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 06 $1 +$5 +502%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 02 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $10 +$3 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$3 +28%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 29 $49 −$49 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 29 $6 −$6 -98%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $11 −$11 -96%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 16 $16 −$16 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 16 $16 −$16 -99%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$6 +60%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 +$21 +414%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 09 $3 −$3 -97%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 05 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 03 $10 +$6 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 03 $10 +$10 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 03 $30 +$9 +29%
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, M May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 26 $12 +$13 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main Apr 26 $12 +$20 +165%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 25 $12 −$12 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 19 $13 +$19 +146%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Valentin vs. Julien LeBlanc (Middleweight, Mai Apr 18 $13 −$13 -98%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $17 +$8 +48%
UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Preli Apr 12 $18 +$10 +57%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 11 $18 −$18 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% −$78
other 15% −$31
crypto 5% +$16
world 5% −$5
tech 4% −$10
finance 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 16h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 37h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 37h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 38h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 40h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 40h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 41h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $7 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -21.8% -29.3% 54% 54% -36.5%
≤30d 30 -14.4% -22.5% 47% 47% -50.4%
≤90d 55 -1.3% -10.7% 49% 49% -20.3%
all 68 -7.2% -16.0% 44% 44% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 44% -25.8%
10% -24.1% 41% -32.9%
15% -31.4% 32% -39.4%
20% -38.1% 28% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.63 · official $79.63 (match) · 145 history records