Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:32:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4148…43b0 crypto 190 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate70%132W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$105
14 days−$105
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$94
sports 0% −$4
other 0% −$3
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 +7.1% -3.1% 70% 57% -14.7%
≤30d 189 +7.1% -3.1% 70% 57% -14.7%
≤90d 189 +7.1% -3.1% 70% 57% -14.7%
all 189 +7.1% -3.1% 70% 57% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 57% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 32% -22.9%
15% -20.8% 13% -30.3%
20% -28.6% 7% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses132 / 57
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)189 / 190
History coverage10d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $92 −$45 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $24 +$23 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $54 −$50 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $13 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.07 (match) · 421 history records