Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x414a…6185
crypto · 654 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$79 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$79 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses468 / 186
Open positions0
Markets (closed)654 / 654
History coverage78d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 654 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$44
14 days−$54
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$7 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$8 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $13 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$7 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$8 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$9 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$6 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $13 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $13 −$6 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $13 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $13 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 24% -11.2%
≤30d 602 +0.3% -9.2% 71% 29% -10.2%
≤90d 654 -0.0% -9.6% 72% 29% -10.6%
all 654 -0.0% -9.6% 72% 29% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 29% -10.6%
10% -18.2% 9% -19.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1609 history records