Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x414b…7407 other 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%22W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$17
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$17
politics 26% −$10
sports 18% −$10
crypto 9% −$4
culture 5% −$5
economics 5% −$2
world 4% +$1
finance 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.6% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 61 -0.7% -10.2% 13% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 108 -0.5% -10.0% 17% 0% -9.8%
all 124 -0.5% -9.9% 18% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses22 / 102
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage101d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 19 $86 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $154 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $114 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $356 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $261 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 17 $224 −$2 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $207 $0 -0%
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $39 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $257 −$4 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 15 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $227 +$3 +1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $210 −$2 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $107 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $276 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 09 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $48 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $48 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 05 $56 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $127 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $18 −$1 -4%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $98 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $49 $0 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 02 $49 −$5 -11%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 02 $63 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $262 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $66 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 43m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $44 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $44 9h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 10h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $52 15h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $50 15h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $50 20h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $59 21h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $59 25h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $65 25h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $66 29h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $55 30h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $55 38h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $45 39h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $45 46h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $65 46h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $65 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $45 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $39 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $39 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $57 3d
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $29 3d
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $29 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $39 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $8 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $31 3d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 3d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.50 · official $57.50 (match) · 472 history records