Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x414c…80c7 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70 (-2%) realized −$46 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$100
other 8% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 79% 7% -10.7%
≤30d 21 -2.8% -12.1% 62% 5% -11.9%
≤90d 21 -2.8% -12.1% 62% 5% -11.9%
all 21 -2.8% -12.1% 62% 5% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 5% -11.9%
10% -20.5% 0% -20.3%
15% -28.2% 0% -28.0%
20% -35.2% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage20d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 52¢ 48¢ $260 $238 −$22 (-9%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals No 59¢ 58¢ $153 $151 −$3 (-2%)
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 17 $225 +$5 +2%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $113 +$3 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $265 −$37 -14%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $88 +$17 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $170 +$5 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $195 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $230 +$5 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $330 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $220 $0 -0%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $255 +$1 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $295 −$44 -15%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $79 +$1 +1%
Kosice: Andrej Martin vs Martin Krumich May 29 $350 −$37 -10%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 29 $75 −$5 -6%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Vicenza: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Lautaro Midon May 28 $7 −$4 -57%
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs May 28 $19 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $24 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $13 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals SELL No 60¢ $142 1h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $295 1h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 46¢ $8 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 46¢ $23 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 46¢ $23 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 46¢ $23 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 46¢ $23 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 46¢ $23 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 46¢ $23 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 46¢ $23 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 46¢ $23 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 46¢ $38 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 45¢ $225 3h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 42¢ $0 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 42¢ $115 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $113 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $260 11h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 46¢ $136 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 46¢ $92 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 46¢ $0 17h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 SELL Under 98¢ $93 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? SELL No 95¢ $49 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $49 26h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 35¢ $175 29h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 SELL Under 81¢ $12 30h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $88 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Under 40¢ $200 33h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Under 40¢ $0 33h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $195 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.61 · official $392.61 (match) · 76 history records