Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x414e…144e other 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (295 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$458 (-11%) realized −$366 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 25L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day295.5pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$10
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$15
sports 26% +$16
other 11% −$40
politics 4% −$2
tech 3% −$12
crypto 3% −$8
finance 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (295 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -13.9% -22.1% 33% 20% -8.9%
≤30d 36 -19.0% -26.8% 31% 19% -8.7%
≤90d 36 -19.0% -26.8% 31% 19% -8.7%
all 36 -19.0% -26.8% 31% 19% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover295.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.8% 19% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.8% 17% -17.4%
15% -40.2% 11% -25.4%
20% -46.0% 8% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$410
Realized−$366
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 25
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions87
Markets (closed)36 / 91
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day295.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 87 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 98¢ $5 $15 +$9 (+167%)
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+61%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 51¢ 99¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+95%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 68¢ 98¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+43%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 66¢ 96¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+44%)
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 53¢ 94¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+78%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 76¢ 92¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+22%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 51¢ 92¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+80%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 38¢ 91¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+137%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 82¢ 99¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+20%)
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? No 50¢ 86¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+70%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 68¢ 94¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+40%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Yes 55¢ 71¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+28%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 11¢ 69¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+510%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 55¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 69¢ 99¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+43%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 72¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 38¢ 96¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+151%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 55¢ 69¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+24%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 66¢ 96¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+46%)
Megaquake by June 30? No 38¢ 94¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+149%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 35¢ 93¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+165%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 15 $2 −$3 -140%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
NBA: SGA Award Parlay Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $405 in June? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $57 −$2 -3%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $79 +$4 +5%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $8 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $314 +$4 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 14 $5 $0 -10%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $496 −$3 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $370 +$1 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $36 +$12 +32%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $6 +$12 +190%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 −$2 -8%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $15 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $141 −$5 -4%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -66%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $17 +$7 +42%
Will BIG qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +26%
Will B8 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $53 −$7 -13%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $23 −$1 -5%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 08 $7 −$2 -25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $31 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $21 +$13 +61%
Will BIG qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Legacy qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 07 $5 −$2 -53%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 3m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $4 7m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 10m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $4 14m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 17m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 17m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 17m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $1 25m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $2 29m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 29m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $2 29m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $2 30m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $2 30m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $2 30m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $2 31m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $3 32m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $2 33m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $2 33m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $2 34m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $2 34m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $4 34m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $4 35m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $3 35m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 36m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $4 36m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 37m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 37m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 38m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 38m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $3 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $410.34 · official $408.46 (match) · 3500 history records