Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x4150…5bdd crypto 108 markets active 2d ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$100 (+0%) realized +$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate94%95W / 6L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% +$89
crypto 29% +$3
other 0% +$6
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% +$2
tech 0% +$1
sports 0% −$2
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.3% -3.8% 100% 33% -9.0%
≤30d 8 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 12% -9.3%
≤90d 22 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 5% -9.4%
all 101 +1.2% -8.4% 94% 15% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 15% -9.2%
10% -17.2% 10% -17.9%
15% -25.2% 6% -25.8%
20% -32.5% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.76 per $1 lost it wins $4.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses95 / 6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)101 / 108
History coverage606d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 96¢ 95¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? Jun 21 $79 $0 +0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 12? Jun 14 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 6? Jun 11 $98 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 25 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 17 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 8? May 10 $145 $0 +0%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 04 $2 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? Apr 26 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 13? Apr 24 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 11? Apr 12 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? Apr 03 $135 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on March 24? Mar 25 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? Mar 20 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 11? Mar 15 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $138 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Mar 05 $3 $0 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? Mar 05 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 28? Mar 01 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 20? Feb 21 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 16 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 8 Feb 09 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 06 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 2? Feb 05 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 29? Jan 30 $137 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 27? Jan 28 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on January 24? Jan 24 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on January 21? Jan 21 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 17? Jan 18 $144 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $79 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $3 6d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 6d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 84¢ $4 6d
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $94 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $98 18d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $141 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $147 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $140 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $145 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $143 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $144 60d
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 71d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $149 72d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $146 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $142 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $144 80d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $135 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $140 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $142 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $139 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $136 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $136 98d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $5 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $143 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.89 · official $113.89 (match) · 451 history records