Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:03:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4151…66c7
crypto · 239 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$71 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$71 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses143 / 96
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 239 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$32
14 days−$56
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -19.3% -27.0% 56% 28% -18.3%
≤30d 239 -13.2% -21.5% 60% 40% -17.8%
≤90d 239 -13.2% -21.5% 60% 40% -17.8%
all 239 -13.2% -21.5% 60% 40% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 40% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 23% -25.7%
15% -35.9% 13% -32.8%
20% -42.2% 7% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 614 history records