Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
41 0x4151…60e7 world 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$546 (-45%) realized −$546 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$84
14 days−$554
30 days−$554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$471
other 13% −$93
sports 12% +$7
tech 4% +$3
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -31.8% -38.3% 0% 0% -43.4%
≤30d 9 -32.9% -39.3% 33% 11% -57.7%
≤90d 9 -32.9% -39.3% 33% 11% -57.7%
all 9 -32.9% -39.3% 33% 11% -57.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.3% 11% -57.7%
10% -45.1% 11% -61.8%
15% -50.4% 0% -65.5%
20% -55.3% 0% -68.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$97 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$546
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage34d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $75 −$11 -14%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 19 $148 −$73 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $37 $0 -1%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Jun 12 $500 −$387 -78%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $75 −$73 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $69 +$7 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $53 +$16 +30%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 9? Jun 10 $50 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $102.00 · 20 history records