Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4152…1a43 crypto 47 markets active 3h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$97 (-14%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%21W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$109
14 days−$109
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$92
politics 6% +$7
other 6% +$5
culture 3% −$18
sports 2% −$8
finance 2% $0
economics 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -25.9% -32.9% 42% 42% -27.1%
≤30d 40 -25.9% -32.9% 42% 42% -27.1%
≤90d 40 -25.9% -32.9% 42% 42% -27.1%
all 47 -23.9% -31.1% 45% 43% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 43% -24.8%
10% -37.7% 28% -32.0%
15% -43.7% 26% -38.6%
20% -49.2% 17% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses21 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage149d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 +16%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$42 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $46 −$17 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$16 +159%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 +$3 +55%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bad Bunny win 2 Grammys? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 06 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 05 $11 +$5 +50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 5? Feb 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Jan 31 $12 −$7 -57%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $39 +$7 +18%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jan 29 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Wolves be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 Jan 28 $10 −$5 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $93 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $20 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records