Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:59:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x4153…967d world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-1%) realized −$181 · open +$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%41W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$969now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$80
14 days+$72
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$341
other 9% +$2
finance 7% +$131
tech 5% +$186
sports 5% +$56
economics 5% −$161
politics 1% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +9.1% -1.3% 80% 80% +5.9%
≤30d 19 +0.6% -9.0% 63% 53% -1.7%
≤90d 62 -17.3% -25.1% 55% 50% -13.5%
all 74 -3.7% -12.9% 55% 51% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 51% -11.5%
10% -21.2% 36% -20.0%
15% -28.9% 16% -27.7%
20% -35.8% 8% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$47 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$969
Realized−$181
Unrealized+$117
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses41 / 33
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)74 / 84
History coverage110d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 93¢ 90¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 61¢ 94¢ $108 $167 +$59 (+55%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 78¢ $100 $162 +$62 (+62%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? No 87¢ 88¢ $105 $106 +$1 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 73¢ 72¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 61¢ 73¢ $60 $72 +$12 (+20%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 75¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $60 $54 −$6 (-11%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $100 +$24 +24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $100 +$37 +37%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $162 +$37 +23%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $59 +$7 +13%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $50 −$25 -51%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $219 +$23 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $75 −$30 -41%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $70 +$29 +42%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $117 +$85 +72%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? May 30 $106 −$106 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $105 +$11 +10%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $98 +$95 +96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $50 +$16 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 24 $10 +$5 +49%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $78 −$15 -20%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $100 −$19 -19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $150 +$45 +30%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $142 +$39 +28%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 12 $59 −$59 -99%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 10 $188 +$20 +11%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? May 03 $133 +$37 +28%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference? Apr 29 $30 −$20 -67%
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press c Apr 29 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $100 +$19 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $146 +$33 +22%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 26 $89 −$89 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $65 +$24 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $200 +$98 +49%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $51 +$14 +27%
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April Apr 23 $163 −$163 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $220 +$11 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $50 −$14 -27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $159 +$52 +33%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 17 $137 −$4 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $321 +$89 +28%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 14 $100 −$63 -63%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 12 $251 −$251 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 08 $386 −$115 -30%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 08 $325 −$59 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 93¢ $200 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 73¢ $101 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $124 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $137 1h
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $59 4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $61 4d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 87¢ $105 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $198 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 88¢ $59 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $60 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 29¢ $25 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $100 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $151 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $45 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $50 17d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $50 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $100 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $75 22d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $73 22d
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $26 22d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $26 22d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 79¢ $106 22d
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA BUY Yes 7¢ $10 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $116 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 61¢ $108 27d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 68¢ $70 27d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 27d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $193 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $66 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $969.05 · official $969.05 (match) · 224 history records