Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:10:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4153…8d29 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$485 (+39%) realized +$483 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$559
other 12% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -11.0% -19.4% 27% 27% +33.1%
≤30d 11 -11.0% -19.4% 27% 27% +33.1%
≤90d 11 -11.0% -19.4% 27% 27% +33.1%
all 11 -11.0% -19.4% 27% 27% +33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 27% +33.1%
10% -27.2% 27% +20.4%
15% -34.2% 27% +8.7%
20% -40.6% 27% -1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +46% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$45 · ×6.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$483
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $155 −$9 -6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$90 +177%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $406 +$409 +101%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 −$21 -50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $116 +$357 +307%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $213 −$213 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $71 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 41¢ $71 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $75 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 41¢ $75 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $80 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 14¢ $62 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $141 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $36 3h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $41 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $815 28h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 30h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $406 30h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 5¢ $19 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 31h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $473 31h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $116 33h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $213 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.74 · official $131.74 (match) · 22 history records