Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
41 0x4154…358a crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+3%) realized +$46 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$15
other 42% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.6% -0.8% 71% 43% -0.9%
≤30d 7 +9.6% -0.8% 71% 43% -0.9%
≤90d 7 +9.6% -0.8% 71% 43% -0.9%
all 7 +9.6% -0.8% 71% 43% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.8% 43% -0.9%
10% ← realistic here -10.3% 14% -10.4%
15% -19.0% 0% -19.0%
20% -26.9% 0% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.83 per $1 lost it wins $9.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England leading at halftime? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $41 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $33 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $40 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 26 history records