Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:48:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4154…e7a8 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,208 (-8%) realized −$4,391 · open +$183
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,452per market
Trades / day70.5pace
Fees−$651est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$10,503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$2,529
other 19% −$4,731
crypto 4% −$2,100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -9.7% -18.3% 41% 41% -19.0%
≤30d 29 -9.7% -18.3% 41% 41% -19.0%
≤90d 29 -9.7% -18.3% 41% 41% -19.0%
all 29 -9.7% -18.3% 41% 41% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 41% -19.0%
10% -26.1% 41% -26.7%
15% ← realistic here -33.2% 41% -33.8%
20% -39.8% 41% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$2,320) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,702 vs −$1,466 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$10,503
Realized−$4,391
Unrealized+$183
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$651
Open positions8
Markets (closed)29 / 37
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1,452
Trades / day70.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 62¢ $4,590 $4,781 +$191 (+4%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $1,350 $1,365 +$15 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $1,260 $1,275 +$15 (+1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $1,290 $1,275 −$15 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $783 $806 +$23 (+3%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $600 $550 −$50 (-8%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $445 $450 +$4 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Under $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2,440 +$2,560 +105%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $191 +$7 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,339 −$1,317 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,508 −$2,480 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $40 −$39 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $475 −$462 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3,064 +$2,936 +96%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $3,350 +$4,465 +133%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $288 −$288 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $955 +$1,045 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,060 +$940 +89%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,010 +$1,902 +188%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3,652 −$3,593 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3,105 −$3,090 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,360 −$3,360 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2,160 +$1,840 +85%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1,231 +$1,414 +115%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2,320 −$2,320 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $855 −$840 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $780 −$780 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $518 −$518 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $940 +$1,060 +113%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $266 −$168 -63%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,380 +$1,620 +117%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $360 +$640 +178%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $810 −$810 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $395 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $4,250 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $44 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $164 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $18 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $712 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,354 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $146 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $600 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $452 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1,282 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 50¢ $198 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $9 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $4 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $178 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $4 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $11 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $7 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $4 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $11 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $1,290 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $12 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 62¢ $2,508 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $33 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $6 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $475 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,503.48 · official $10,503.50 (match) · 242 history records