Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
41 0x4156…997e weather 314 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$510 (+1%) realized +$510 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate44%139W / 175L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$531est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$173
14 days+$155
30 days−$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$519
finance 15% +$376
politics 14% +$132
weather 8% +$156
other 7% +$94
world 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +6.2% -3.9% 93% 14% -5.5%
≤30d 94 +33.2% +20.5% 71% 27% -11.1%
≤90d 202 +52.8% +38.3% 47% 26% -9.4%
all 314 +30.6% +18.2% 44% 27% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.2% 27% -8.8%
10% +6.9% 21% -17.5%
15% -3.5% 20% -25.5%
20% -12.9% 19% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$21 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$510
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses139 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$531
Open positions0
Markets (closed)314 / 314
History coverage194d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 314 Trades
no open positions (135 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $531 +$28 +5%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $297 +$15 +5%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $142 +$1 +1%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $288 +$11 +4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $314 +$15 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $479 +$7 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $193 −$38 -20%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $144 +$8 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $773 +$17 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $289 +$9 +3%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $160 +$22 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $92 +$6 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $139 +$66 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $89 +$5 +6%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $204 −$198 -97%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $723 −$222 -31%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $146 +$19 +13%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $324 +$8 +2%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $160 −$7 -4%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $1,820 +$68 +4%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $202 +$8 +4%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $1,014 +$56 +6%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $1,443 +$47 +3%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $330 −$46 -14%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $158 +$21 +13%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $1,736 −$137 -8%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 01 $59 +$48 +81%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 01 $20 +$10 +50%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $1 +$1 +78%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 May 31 $107 −$59 -55%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 May 31 $248 +$5 +2%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5 May 31 $6 $0 +7%
CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $34 +$3 +8%
Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 4.5 May 30 $90 +$12 +13%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $551 +$54 +10%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $168 +$24 +14%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) May 30 $92 +$100 +109%
Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 May 30 $93 −$7 -8%
Will Club Guabirá win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $24 −$10 -44%
CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs. Club Guabirá: O/U 1.5 May 29 $0 +$3 +1468%
AC Monza vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 2.5 May 29 $63 +$6 +10%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 4.5 May 29 $23 +$3 +11%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 5.5 May 28 $280 −$21 -7%
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 May 28 $4 $0 +5%
Club Bolívar vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 3.5 May 28 $150 +$53 +36%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. Carabobo FC: O/U 2.5 May 28 $90 +$14 +16%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. Carabobo FC: O/U 1.5 May 28 $187 +$1 +1%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Platense: O/U 2.5 May 28 $90 −$55 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $33 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $17 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $17 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $17 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $72 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $11 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $14 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $5 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $38 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $2 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $39 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $95 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 72¢ $67 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $43 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $26 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 67¢ $96 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 67¢ $1 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $95 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 66¢ $74 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 66¢ $2 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 66¢ $20 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $95 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 61¢ $7 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 62¢ $108 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $8 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $28 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $48 1h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 2h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $93 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3008 history records