Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:27:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x4157…04f9 sports 922 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,151 (-5%) realized −$6,407 · open +$256
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%430W / 491L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$756now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$814
7 days+$814
14 days+$814
30 days+$814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$5,767
other 8% −$65
world 0% −$218
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% +17.9%
≤30d 6 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% +17.9%
≤90d 6 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% +17.9%
all 921 -7.4% -16.2% 47% 47% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 47% -14.1%
10% -24.2% 46% -22.3%
15% -31.5% 45% -29.8%
20% -38.3% 45% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$127 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$756
Realized−$6,407
Unrealized+$256
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses430 / 491
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)921 / 922
History coverage188d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 921 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 66¢ $500 $756 +$256 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 484 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $280 −$275 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $507 −$500 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $86 −$84 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $305 +$308 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $508 +$492 +97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,014 +$873 +86%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5 Mar 12 $498 −$498 -100%
Panathinaikós AO vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score Mar 12 $498 −$498 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $400 −$400 -100%
CD Tondela vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 1.5 Mar 01 $160 +$98 +61%
FC Utrecht vs. AZ: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $300 −$300 -100%
Valencia CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5 Mar 01 $200 −$200 -100%
FC Volendam vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $500 +$360 +72%
VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score Mar 01 $599 −$599 -100%
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $300 +$299 +100%
Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Kayserispor: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $200 −$200 -100%
US Cremonese vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score Mar 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $200 +$150 +75%
Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 01 $200 −$200 -100%
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $162 −$162 -100%
Vitória SC vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5 Mar 01 $200 +$262 +131%
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CD Guadalajara: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Colorado Rapids SC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $359 −$359 -100%
CD Nacional vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $100 +$59 +59%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $142 −$142 -100%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $300 −$300 -100%
New York Red Bulls vs. New England Revolution: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $700 −$700 -100%
Hellas Verona FC vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $200 +$287 +144%
Galatasaray SK vs. Alanyaspor: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $300 +$255 +85%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
AVS Futebol vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5 Feb 28 $145 −$145 -100%
Burnley FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $300 +$245 +82%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5 Feb 28 $137 −$137 -100%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $200 +$216 +108%
Holstein Kiel vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5 Feb 28 $57 +$64 +112%
Kocaelispor vs. Beşiktaş JK: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $243 −$243 -100%
Holstein Kiel vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Kasımpaşa SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $136 −$136 -100%
Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $900 +$527 +59%
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $400 +$508 +127%
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 28 $199 −$199 -100%
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Perth Glory FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $200 +$200 +100%
Auckland FC vs. Melbourne City FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $400 −$400 -100%
Club Tijuana vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $149 −$149 -100%
Querétaro FC vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $500 +$416 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $508 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $280 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $507 19h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $86 22h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $305 25h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $508 28h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 43h
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $498 99d
Panathinaikós AO vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $498 99d
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $400 110d
CD Tondela vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $258 110d
FC Utrecht vs. AZ: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $300 110d
Valencia CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $200 110d
CD Tondela vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $160 110d
FC Volendam vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $860 110d
VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $599 110d
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $599 110d
FC Volendam vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $500 110d
Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Kayserispor: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $200 110d
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $300 110d
US Cremonese vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $500 110d
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $350 110d
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $200 110d
Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $200 110d
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $162 110d
Vitória SC vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $462 110d
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CD Guadalajara: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $200 110d
Vitória SC vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $200 110d
Colorado Rapids SC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $359 110d
CD Nacional vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $159 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $755.68 · official $755.68 (match) · 1399 history records