Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4157…04a1 crypto 732 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$102 (-1%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%490W / 241L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$75
14 days−$132
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$213
world 3% −$34
tech 1% −$3
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -11.4% -19.8% 45% 37% -17.9%
≤30d 553 -5.1% -14.2% 63% 59% -12.9%
≤90d 731 -4.5% -13.6% 67% 50% -11.7%
all 731 -4.5% -13.6% 67% 50% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 50% -11.7%
10% -21.9% 47% -20.1%
15% -29.4% 10% -27.9%
20% -36.3% 3% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses490 / 241
Open positions1
Markets (closed)731 / 732
History coverage85d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 731 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Up 74¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Down 33¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$7 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.42 · official $3.58 · 2248 history records