Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4158…55ff weather 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate65%80W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 81% −$13
other 10% +$1
politics 4% +$3
world 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 123 -34.5% -40.8% 64% 1% -10.0%
all 124 -34.2% -40.4% 65% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 2% -9.9%
10% -46.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -51.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -56.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses80 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage92d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? Jun 01 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 20 Apr 28 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 20? Apr 28 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 20? Apr 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 20? Apr 21 $15 $0 -1%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 21 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 19? Apr 20 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 19? Apr 20 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on April 20? Apr 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between Apr 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 18? Apr 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 18? Apr 19 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on April 19? Apr 19 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 19? Apr 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 18? Apr 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 69°F or below on April 18? Apr 19 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on April 18 Apr 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 17 Apr 18 $12 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 38-39°F on April 17? Apr 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on April 16 Apr 18 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 71°F or below on April 17? Apr 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 17? Apr 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or higher on Apri Apr 18 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on April 17 Apr 18 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on Apr Apr 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 16? Apr 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 16? Apr 17 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 16? Apr 17 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 16? Apr 17 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15? Apr 16 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 15? Apr 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 15? Apr 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 15? Apr 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 14? Apr 15 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 14? Apr 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on Apri Apr 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 14? Apr 15 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on April 14? Apr 15 $11 $0 -2%
Will "Temptation Island: Season 10" be the #2 US Netflix show this wee Apr 14 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 13? Apr 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ap Apr 14 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 13? Apr 14 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 13? Apr 14 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 14? Apr 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 13 Apr 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 12? Apr 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 12? Apr 13 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 55°F or below on April 12? Apr 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will Tisza win 100–109 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in thi Apr 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? BUY No 100¢ $90 20d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between SELL No 99¢ $5 60d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 20 BUY No 98¢ $15 60d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 60d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between BUY No 98¢ $5 60d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $11 61d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $12 61d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 61d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $11 61d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 18? BUY No 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 61d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 18? BUY No 99¢ $15 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 312 history records