Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:36:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4159…a9a0 sports 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$333 · open +$249
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate58%97W / 70L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$459per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$4,899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$246
14 days−$916
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$345
sports 31% −$578
other 10% −$274
politics 9% +$32
crypto 1% +$6
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -20.7% -28.3% 57% 26% -12.6%
≤30d 78 -9.7% -18.3% 56% 35% -9.2%
≤90d 160 -9.0% -17.7% 59% 30% -10.3%
all 167 -9.2% -17.8% 58% 29% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 29% -10.3%
10% -25.7% 24% -18.9%
15% -32.9% 20% -26.7%
20% -39.4% 17% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$43 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$4,899
Realized−$333
Unrealized+$249
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses97 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions14
Markets (closed)167 / 181
History coverage161d
Avg bet$459
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $2,149 $2,293 +$144 (+7%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $915 $992 +$78 (+9%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 97¢ $335 $387 +$52 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $360 $369 +$9 (+3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $249 $258 +$9 (+4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $198 $199 +$2 (+1%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 86¢ 91¢ $183 $195 +$12 (+7%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $48 $57 +$9 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-43%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 23¢ 2¢ $58 $5 −$54 (-92%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 5¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 $0 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6 +$4 +82%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $105 +$7 +7%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $32 +$1 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $18 +$4 +23%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 +$3 +49%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6,182 +$18 +0%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $88 +$12 +14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $14 +$36 +270%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $8 +$5 +64%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,389 −$652 -47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 17 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $13 −$4 -32%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $87 −$2 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $882 +$61 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +194%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $7 +$13 +194%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $129 +$2 +2%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $25 +$25 +103%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $11 +$2 +21%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$6 +144%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $13 −$5 -41%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 55m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $173 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 27h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $48 29h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 29h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $105 29h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $180 29h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $177 29h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 36h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 42h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $92 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 91¢ $74 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 84¢ $34 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,898.58 · official $4,898.58 (match) · 1187 history records