Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x415b…8d28 other 27 markets active 7h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%25W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$1
crypto 40% −$1
weather 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 24 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 26 -0.0% -9.5% 96% 0% -9.7%
all 26 -0.0% -9.5% 96% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses25 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage51d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 06 $18 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 39h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $12 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $14 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $15 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 8d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $15 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $16 15d
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 19d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $14 26d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $11 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 99¢ $12 28d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 29d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $17 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.87 · official $17.87 (match) · 54 history records