Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:29:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
41 0x415c…9c6d crypto 271 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$315 (+7%) realized +$315 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%107W / 164L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$30
14 days−$16
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$330
sports 33% +$440
crypto 17% −$53
politics 6% +$223
culture 3% +$31
world 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +3.4% -6.5% 33% 33% -5.8%
≤30d 73 -15.8% -23.8% 29% 29% -4.4%
≤90d 74 -12.7% -21.0% 30% 30% -3.2%
all 271 +3.0% -6.8% 39% 39% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 39% -3.3%
10% -15.7% 35% -12.6%
15% -23.9% 33% -21.0%
20% -31.3% 27% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$11 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$315
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses107 / 164
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)271 / 271
History coverage225d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 271 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $22 +$10 +44%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $30 +$6 +19%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $40 +$27 +66%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $7 −$7 -99%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $7 +$23 +325%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -23%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 +$16 +81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -66%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $15 +$12 +77%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $26 +$13 +50%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $77 +$14 +18%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +41%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $47 −$29 -62%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $13 +$13 +101%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$12 +118%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$8 +249%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$48 +2328%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $10 33m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $20 38m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 39m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 40m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $67 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 84¢ $30 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $4 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $6 3d
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $3 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 674 history records