Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:47:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4160…03bc other 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%35W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$4
other 35% −$28
politics 13% +$4
finance 3% +$1
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
weather 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -20.5% -28.1% 67% 33% +0.2%
≤90d 72 -3.2% -12.4% 46% 3% -9.7%
all 79 -3.6% -12.8% 44% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 4% -9.8%
10% -21.1% 4% -18.4%
15% -28.7% 3% -26.3%
20% -35.7% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses35 / 44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage95d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 23? No 94¢ 99¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+5%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $19 +$6 +35%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 27 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film May 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? May 20 $49 −$6 -11%
Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $19 +$2 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $140 +$2 +1%
Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? May 12 $357 $0 -0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 12 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $11 −$2 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 10 $730 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 08 $5 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 08 $88 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $169 −$1 -0%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 04 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026? May 01 $91 $0 +0%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 30 $94 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? Apr 29 $85 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 27 $85 $0 +0%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 Apr 26 $93 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $83 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 25 $7 +$1 +10%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Apr 24 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $5 +$3 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $86 +$1 +1%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr Apr 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30? Apr 21 $29 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $80 −$3 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30? Apr 20 $80 $0 +0%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 19 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? Apr 18 $4 $0 -5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $3 $0 +6%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Apr 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 14 $78 $0 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $86 $0 +0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $164 +$2 +1%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $76 $0 -0%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 11 $84 $0 +0%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 11 $76 +$1 +2%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 10 $75 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $76 $0 -0%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $159 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 09 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $76 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 94¢ $51 1h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes $2 27d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 27d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY Yes 97¢ $22 27d
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? BUY No $0 31d
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? BUY No $2 31d
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? BUY No $1 31d
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film BUY No 94¢ $20 32d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY Yes 95¢ $41 33d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY No $4 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY No $1 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY No $1 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY No $2 34d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 97¢ $16 39d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 97¢ $42 39d
Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 39d
Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 92¢ $19 40d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? SELL No 97¢ $83 40d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 97¢ $82 40d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $82 40d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $82 40d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? SELL Yes $10 40d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY Yes $3 40d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY Yes $6 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $0 41d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $5 41d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $4 41d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $1 41d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $4 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.06 · official $68.06 (match) · 276 history records