Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4160…3ad7 crypto 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$374 (+41%) realized +$378 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%25W / 38L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$71
other 35% +$455
sports 2% −$17
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +1.2% -8.5% 40% 40% +32.6%
≤30d 63 +1.2% -8.5% 40% 40% +32.6%
≤90d 63 +1.2% -8.5% 40% 40% +32.6%
all 63 +1.2% -8.5% 40% 40% +32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 40% +32.6%
10% -17.2% 40% +19.9%
15% -25.2% 38% +8.3%
20% -32.5% 38% -2.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$11 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$378
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses25 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage5d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $49 +$228 +468%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$11 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $37 +$354 +957%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 99¢ $277 3h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.25 · official $96.25 (match) · 118 history records