Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:29:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x416b…bad6 other 542 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 237d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,190 (+5%) realized +$884 · open +$306
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate53%278W / 249L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$3,328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$46
14 days+$28
30 days−$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$840
culture 28% −$186
sports 18% +$438
crypto 10% −$399
world 4% +$112
finance 3% −$63
politics 2% +$595
weather 1% −$186
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +100.4% +81.3% 80% 60% +45.0%
≤30d 20 +14.0% +3.1% 45% 35% -42.4%
≤90d 42 +59.8% +44.6% 62% 43% +9.4%
all 527 +8.8% -1.5% 53% 36% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 36% -6.2%
10% -11.0% 28% -15.1%
15% -19.6% 22% -23.3%
20% -27.4% 18% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$3,328
Realized+$884
Unrealized+$306
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses278 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions11
Markets (closed)527 / 542
History coverage238d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $609 $966 +$357 (+59%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 19¢ $342 $774 +$432 (+127%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $650 $446 −$204 (-31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $445 $410 −$35 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $387 $254 −$133 (-34%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $205 $203 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $215 $122 −$93 (-43%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $81 $75 −$6 (-8%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 68¢ 67¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $23 $18 −$5 (-23%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $2 +$1 +49%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $3 −$2 -53%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $38 +$2 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $1 +$4 +374%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $32 +$40 +125%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $11 −$6 -56%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $19 −$4 -23%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $47 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -34%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1 $0 -38%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +132%
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Jun 07 $280 +$51 +18%
Will "AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Ca Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 01 $28 −$12 -42%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $396 −$396 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $805 +$51 +6%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $210 +$805 +384%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $4 $0 +2%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2 $0 +8%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1 $0 +11%
Will "PAPER TIGER by James GRAY" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Fil May 22 $3 +$22 +650%
Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Fe May 20 $2 +$8 +330%
Will "ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 May 19 $2 +$10 +599%
Will "SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu" win Palme d'Or at the 202 May 19 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $145 +$171 +118%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $40 +$3 +9%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $12 −$5 -40%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $32 −$8 -24%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $21 $0 +1%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $49 +$25 +52%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $282 −$279 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Apr 18 $37 +$13 +35%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $121 +$73 +60%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $2 +$4 +214%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $7 −$4 -64%
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 26 $82 +$444 +538%
Will Bilibili Gaming win First Stand 2026? Mar 22 $95 +$543 +574%
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 22 $374 +$132 +35%
Will Gen.G win First Stand 2026? Mar 22 $517 −$517 -100%
Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 21 $398 +$40 +10%
Game Handicap: BFX (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $121 1h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $166 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $40 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $40 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $39 7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $39 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 11h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $38 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $40 4d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-0 BUY 18¢ $1 5d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? AND Will Colombia vs. DR Congo BUY 7¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 19¢ $2 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in BUY 17¢ $1 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $121 5d
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $127 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $229 6d
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $158 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 21¢ $1 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 9d
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $38 10d
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,328.21 · official $3,328.56 (match) · 3500 history records