Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x416c…a782 sports 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$156 (+3%) realized +$20 · open +$136
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%39W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$909now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$106
14 days−$95
30 days−$641
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$98
sports 38% $0
crypto 12% −$12
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +6.7% -3.5% 59% 59% +0.8%
≤30d 68 -15.5% -23.6% 44% 44% -24.1%
≤90d 80 -10.5% -19.0% 49% 46% -10.6%
all 80 -10.5% -19.0% 49% 46% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 46% -10.6%
10% -26.8% 46% -19.1%
15% -33.9% 45% -26.9%
20% -40.3% 36% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$50 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$909
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$136
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses39 / 41
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions4
Markets (closed)80 / 84
History coverage38d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $575 $696 +$121 (+21%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 57¢ 82¢ $80 $115 +$35 (+43%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 44¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score No 65¢ 79¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $188 −$8 -4%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$31 +152%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$30 +50%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $36 +$32 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $21 −$21 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $22 +$12 +53%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $22 −$22 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$10 +67%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $33 +$22 +66%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $35 −$35 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 +$57 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$12 +46%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$19 +124%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $8 +$8 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 +$2 +26%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 +$15 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $76 −$75 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $12 +$15 +124%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 +$43 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$29 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $47 −$46 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 +$32 +262%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$11 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $12 +$13 +105%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $142 −$139 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $20 +$15 +73%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 09 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $43 −$43 -99%
Poland vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 03 $122 −$120 -99%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $152 −$150 -99%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $66 −$65 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $101 1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $18 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $180 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $188 31h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $20 47h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $6 47h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 66¢ $10 47h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $36 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $21 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $34 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $22 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $22 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $25 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 96¢ $56 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $35 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $15 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 57¢ $33 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $37 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $61 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $8 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $15 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 67¢ $45 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 43¢ $11 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $53 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $909.26 · official $909.26 (match) · 148 history records