Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x416d…9614 crypto 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$162 (-7%) realized −$162 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%42W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$80
14 days+$80
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +48.0% +33.9% 80% 60% +15.7%
≤30d 56 +11.4% +0.8% 48% 34% -6.5%
≤90d 91 +6.7% -3.4% 46% 31% -8.3%
all 91 +6.7% -3.4% 46% 31% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 31% -8.3%
10% -12.7% 21% -17.1%
15% -21.1% 15% -25.1%
20% -28.9% 8% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses42 / 49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $18 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$83 +503%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $64 −$17 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$20 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 07 $13 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 06 $32 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 05 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 29 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 29 $8 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 29 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 28 $23 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 28 $66 −$11 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 28 $69 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 28 $46 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 28 $44 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 28 $8 +$5 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 28 $40 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 28 $37 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 28 $58 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 28 $50 −$19 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 28 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 28 $134 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 27 $63 −$9 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 27 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 27 $23 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 27 $41 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 27 $48 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 27 $9 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 27 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 27 $43 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 27 $64 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 27 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 27 $27 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $23 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $28 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $30 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records