Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:38:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x416e…c4c6 crypto 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$144 (+3%) realized +$144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%35W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$51
14 days−$174
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$340
other 15% +$349
sports 6% −$137
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -23.0%
≤30d 4 -7.7% -16.5% 50% 50% -21.6%
≤90d 39 -42.5% -48.0% 26% 26% -24.9%
all 75 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 47% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 47% -12.0%
10% -21.7% 43% -20.4%
15% -29.3% 41% -28.1%
20% -36.2% 39% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$52 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses35 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage116d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $153 +$139 +91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $126 −$123 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $123 +$96 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 16 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9PM ET Apr 16 $7 −$5 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6PM ET Apr 09 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 05 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 02 $346 −$38 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 02 $318 −$303 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 02 $375 +$69 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 02 $32 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12AM ET Apr 01 $128 +$305 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 01 $15 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 01 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 01 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 01 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 01 $136 +$221 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 27 $16 +$14 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 27 $9 +$7 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 27 $5 +$4 +91%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw Mar 22 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 20 $50 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 20 $27 +$22 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 16 $18 +$23 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 13 $58 +$23 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 12 $38 +$20 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 12 $20 +$18 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 11 $11 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 08 $244 −$244 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $292 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $153 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 35¢ $126 11d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? SELL Up 98¢ $218 17d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? BUY Up 54¢ $123 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $15 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $40 56d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $43 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $47 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $7 64d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $92 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $39 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $56 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $290 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $15 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $28 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $308 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $300 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $46 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $444 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $375 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $26 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $32 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $433 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $128 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $40 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $20 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records