Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4174…e481 other 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 376d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate32%16W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$1
world 25% −$3
politics 17% $0
crypto 10% +$1
economics 7% −$1
sports 4% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -10.6%
all 50 -1.9% -11.3% 32% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 4% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage376d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $17 −$1 -9%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 13 $3 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 13 $17 $0 -1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Aug 13 $1 $0 -12%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" during his remarks to US troop Aug 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 10 $48 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 10 $2 $0 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? Aug 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Reconciliation bill receive fewer than 213 votes? Aug 10 $23 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 5? Jul 01 $23 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jun 24 $22 $0 +2%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 -7%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 22 $21 $0 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? Jun 21 $18 $0 +2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 -4%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 20 $19 $0 +1%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 18 $19 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $30 3m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $6 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $21 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $7 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $22 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $29 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $29 30h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $28 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 60¢ $32 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $32 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $18 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $18 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $2 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $13 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $5 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $8 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $3 11d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 13d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $20 13d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 13d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL Yes 1¢ $0 314d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records