Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:31:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4174…1965 crypto 595 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,598 (-9%) realized −$1,598 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate71%421W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$101
14 days−$74
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$1,197
other 14% −$337
sports 5% −$24
politics 1% −$172
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +437.6% +386.4% 100% 100% +4.5%
≤30d 79 +6.9% -3.3% 54% 51% -16.6%
≤90d 295 +2.5% -7.2% 69% 62% -16.7%
all 595 +0.2% -9.4% 71% 59% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 59% -18.6%
10% -18.0% 35% -26.4%
15% -26.0% 23% -33.5%
20% -33.2% 17% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$21 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,598
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses421 / 174
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)595 / 595
History coverage252d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 595 Trades
no open positions (145 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $43 +$7 +17%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $351 +$42 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $300 +$51 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $207 −$203 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $186 +$23 +12%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $180 +$5 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 05 $39 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 05 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 05 $60 +$55 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 05 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 05 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 05 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 04 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $53 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $44 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $81 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 03 $36 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 03 $15 +$15 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 03 $7 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 03 $6 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 03 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$2 -78%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $12 +$7 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 02 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 02 $6 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 02 $9 +$8 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings SELL Chicago Sky 89¢ $50 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 75¢ $43 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $393 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $351 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $300 17h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $207 11d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $208 11d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $186 12d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $180 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $13 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $23 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $7 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1463 history records