Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
41 0x4176…8f3d other 9 markets active 5h ago coverage 132d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$168 (-22%) realized −$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$34
politics 27% −$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.2% -16.0% 71% 29% -3.9%
≤30d 7 -7.2% -16.0% 71% 29% -3.9%
≤90d 7 -7.2% -16.0% 71% 29% -3.9%
all 9 -27.8% -34.7% 56% 22% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 22% -29.8%
10% -40.9% 11% -36.5%
15% -46.6% 0% -42.6%
20% -51.9% 0% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$52 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage132d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $172 +$1 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$2 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $172 −$3 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $141 +$32 +23%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p Feb 12 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Shafiqur Rahman be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh after th Feb 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 99¢ $172 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $169 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $172 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 29h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 3d
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p BUY Yes 7¢ $70 131d
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p BUY Yes 12¢ $30 131d
Will Shafiqur Rahman be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh after th BUY Yes 29¢ $29 131d
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p BUY Yes 17¢ $20 131d
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p BUY Yes 26¢ $54 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records