Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:01:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4176…a875 sports 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,163 (-6%) realized −$2,372 · open +$209
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$909per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$159est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$3,311
sports 20% −$1,101
other 6% +$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -16.4% -24.3% 27% 24% -3.9%
≤30d 37 -16.4% -24.3% 27% 24% -3.9%
≤90d 37 -16.4% -24.3% 27% 24% -3.9%
all 37 -16.4% -24.3% 27% 24% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.3% 24% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 22% -13.1%
15% -38.2% 22% -21.5%
20% -44.3% 22% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -84% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$725 vs −$186 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2,457
Realized−$2,372
Unrealized+$209
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$159
Open positions5
Markets (closed)37 / 42
History coverage7d
Avg bet$909
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $2,183 $2,401 +$218 (+10%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+4%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $26 $15 −$11 (-42%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 29? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 29 $28,211 +$3,520 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? Jun 28 $212 −$200 -94%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $153 +$196 +129%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $153 +$424 +276%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $153 +$264 +172%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 27 $153 +$188 +124%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $153 +$382 +250%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $153 +$382 +250%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $154 +$918 +596%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $507 −$34 -7%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $506 +$5 +1%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $510 +$974 +191%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $508 −$500 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $508 −$500 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $507 −$500 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 10m
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $77 1h
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $2,105 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 81¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 79¢ $8,374 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 79¢ $4 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 79¢ $2,338 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 79¢ $5 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 79¢ $157 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 79¢ $4 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 79¢ $16 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 79¢ $2,294 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 79¢ $4 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 79¢ $2,258 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 79¢ $15,392 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 79¢ $22 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 79¢ $847 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 77¢ $15 4h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 4h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,456.51 · official $2,404.35 · 103 history records