Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x417b…236e weather 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+6%) realized +$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%32W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$60
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +25.2% +13.3% 45% 45% +19.5%
≤30d 83 +3.7% -6.2% 39% 39% -4.4%
≤90d 83 +3.7% -6.2% 39% 39% -4.4%
all 83 +3.7% -6.2% 39% 39% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 39% -4.4%
10% -15.1% 39% -13.6%
15% -23.3% 39% -21.9%
20% -30.9% 36% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses32 / 51
Open positions26
Markets (closed)83 / 110
History coverage12d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+185%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Yes 23¢ 100¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+335%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Yes 35¢ 35¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Yes 49¢ 43¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Yes 35¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 14? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$13 +465%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 +$4 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$6 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$7 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $6 +$20 +338%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$10 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $7 +$9 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$11 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$6 +107%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 09 $7 +$11 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 09 $4 +$7 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 09 $11 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 +$15 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$3 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 7? Jun 08 $6 +$8 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 7? Jun 08 $2 +$3 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 26m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 59m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 24¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 23¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 49¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.08 · official $41.82 (match) · 148 history records