Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x417d…aa35 other 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 386d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%38W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% $0
other 22% +$3
politics 18% $0
sports 10% +$1
economics 5% −$2
crypto 3% −$9
culture 2% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 20% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 22 +0.0% -9.5% 23% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 58 -0.7% -10.2% 22% 2% -10.0%
all 113 -1.2% -10.6% 34% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

386d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses38 / 75
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage386d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $6 $0 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $63 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $84 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $60 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $73 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $7 −$1 -12%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $88 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $79 +$2 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $30 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $7 +$1 +18%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $55 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $58 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $51 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $13 $0 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $26 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $55 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $88 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $63 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $62 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 30 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $14 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $3 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $3 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $8 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $29 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $14 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $25 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $15 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $11 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $10 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $16 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.16 · official $29.16 (match) · 455 history records