Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x417d…ddf7 crypto 1460 markets active 10h ago coverage 23d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$193 (-2%) realized −$193 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate28%414W / 1046L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$84
14 days−$97
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 587 -3.5% -12.7% 39% 12% -11.4%
≤30d 1460 -2.2% -11.5% 28% 5% -10.8%
≤90d 1460 -2.2% -11.5% 28% 5% -10.8%
all 1460 -2.2% -11.5% 28% 5% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 5% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 5% -19.4%
15% -27.7% 5% -27.2%
20% -34.8% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$193
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses414 / 1046
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1460 / 1460
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1460 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$8 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$16 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$8 +397%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $7 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records